Vietnam is poised for a boost in rice export value in the latter part of 2026, driven by a recovery in international prices and increased demand from key markets. By mid-August, the country had already exported about 5.7 million tonnes of rice, with total shipments for the year expected to reach around 7.7 million tonnes. Although export earnings are projected at approximately $3.9 billion—representing a 4% decline from last year due to weaker average prices in the first half of the year—a renewed uptick in prices seen in July, with a 5.8% year-on-year increase, may enhance revenue in the coming months.
Global market conditions appear favorable for Vietnam’s rice exports, as a supply-demand deficit is anticipated for the 2026-27 crop year, potentially elevating global trade to record levels. Concerns over a strong El Niño effect could prompt countries to bolster food reserves, further boosting demand. The Philippines, Vietnam’s largest rice market, is expected to import about 5.6 million tonnes in the 2026-27 crop year to increase its reserves. Additionally, China is amplifying its rice imports, particularly of broken rice for animal feed, presenting more opportunities for Vietnamese exporters.
Other global markets also offer potential growth avenues. For instance, Nigeria is projected to face a significant rice shortage, and Kenya has temporarily lifted import duties on white rice under a quota system. Vietnamese exporters are finding promising prospects in premium segments, with high-quality, low-emission certified rice fetching over $1,000 per tonne in markets like Japan, the European Union, and Australia.
Despite this optimistic outlook, Vietnam’s rice sector encounters several hurdles. The Philippines is contemplating additional safeguard duties on rice from Vietnam and other suppliers, which could increase the total tariff to over 35%, impacting exports to this critical market. Furthermore, Indonesia is unlikely to import rice this year due to strong domestic production and reserves. Vietnamese rice also faces stiff price competition from India and Pakistan in several African regions.
Adding to the competitive landscape, Thailand is broadening its market share in China, while Cambodia is ramping up exports of fragrant rice, intensifying the rivalry for Vietnamese suppliers. High costs of fertilizers, transportation, and energy continue to pressure farmers and exporters. Additionally, the looming threat of El Niño could result in drought and saltwater intrusion late in 2026 and early 2027, potentially impacting Vietnam’s winter-spring rice crop. Nonetheless, the combination of recovering prices, increased demand, and interest in premium rice varieties could bolster Vietnam’s export earnings towards the year’s end, despite ongoing challenges with tariffs, competition, and weather-related risks.